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There's Nothing to Be Gained by Playing the Brinkmanship Game With Iran

April 20, 2006 By:
Leonard Fein
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It all sounds so depressingly familiar: We are told that we are giving diplomacy a chance, any suggestion that we are preparing for military action is "wild speculation."

But, at the same time, Iran represents a grave threat to world peace and is a haven for terrorism. If we wait too long, it will have obtained nuclear weapons, international inspection or not. So armed intervention must be considered an option.

We have seen this movie before, quite recently. But, of course, Iran is not Iraq.

It is a nation with far greater resources in people and materiel. It makes no secret of its nuclear ambitions (the peaceful ones, anyway) and its current president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is a vile human being. It is not Washington's spin, but his very own words that condemn him.

There is, it would seem, no doubt that an Iran with nuclear weapons and an Ahmadinejad at its helm would constitute an unacceptable danger to the Middle East and to the world.

That would appear to settle the case in favor of the hawks. Except that there is no particular urgency to the matter.

An unacceptable danger is not necessarily a present danger, and most experts say it will be eight to 10 years before Iran has the bomb and can deliver it. Even the Israeli experts say it will be at least two more years before Iran has adequate enriched uranium to construct a nuclear weapon.

So why, suddenly, the hurry and the deluge of warnings from top officials? One depressing possibility: We're bluffing, hoping the bluff will get Iran to soften its position in its negotiations with the Europeans.

We bluff them, and they bluff back, so we bluff some more - and what do you know, before long we have bluffed each other right over the brink, into war.

Another possibility, suggested by Seymour Hersh in The New Yorker, who says he heard this from "several officials": "[T]he White House's interest in preventing an Israeli attack on a Muslim country, which would provoke a backlash across the region, was a factor in its decision to begin the current operational planning."

But the officials are mistaken; Israel is very clearly in no hurry to launch a preemptive attack on Iran, with all the risks that thereunto pertain.

The Bush administration can create a climate of fear (based on reality) regarding Iran, and then unleash the bombs before the midterm elections. No large ground forces this time, just bombs and missiles and perhaps, in order to penetrate Iran's underground and massively reinforced nuclear facilities, tactical nuclear weapons. In and, just a few days later, out.

And keep your fingers tightly crossed that you've wrecked all the scattered and hidden sites, and also destroyed any residual retaliatory capacity, and also ruined civic morale so that Iran's alleged 40,000 suicide bombers, some number of them in place, choose to return home rather than carry out their missions.

To say nothing of the likely major disruption of the oil market, with who knows what calamitous global economic consequences.

Lots of luck.

No analysis I've seen suggests that, even with six more months of intelligence than we now have, we'll be able to identify all the important sites. And no experience that anyone has had suggests that a nation's morale can be broken by massive bombing.

The substantive argument seems clear: no war, not now. There is also a prudential argument that applies to American Jews in particular. We ought be especially circumspect in cheerleading for war. One cannot say in advance - not with any great certainty - how such a war will end. One cannot say with any certainty what Israel's role will be nor what threats Israel will face.

One therefore cannot say whether America's might will be needed not only for the initial assault on Iran, but also to protect Israel. And that is a road Israel and its friends do not want to go down -more precisely, ought not want to go down - unless and until there is no alternative.

But the war fever in Washington mounts, and soon it will grip the entire nation. Our leaders cry havoc, and so let slip the dogs of war.

Leonard Fein is a Boston-based columnist.

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